“Bitcoin Price at $100,000 Unlikely Despite Potential Hike”

Data from the options market suggest that there is less than a 10% possibility of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price surpassing the $100,000 mark before the year concludes.

This prediction seems to counter the expectations of many retail and sophisticated investors who have projected a potential price hike for the major cryptocurrency before this year’s end.

According to the current pricing at Deribit for Bitcoin options, there is roughly a 9.58% chance of Bitcoin’s price surpassing $100,000 by December 27th. However, a higher probability pegs the price climb at $82,000, as highlighted by an informed analysis. Note that the probabilities in the options market are vulnerable to quick changes due to fluctuating market conditions.

The Feasibility of $82,000 and Bitcoin Volatility

Several traders have suggested to CoinDesk that Bitcoin could see its price rise to the $80,000-$82,000 range by the end of the year, despite the results of the crucial U.S elections due on November 5. The options market notes that there might be a potential 22% price swing in either direction by late December, thereby potentially paving the way for an increase beyond $80,000 by the close of the year.

BloFin’s head of options trading and research, Griffin Ardern, explained to CoinDesk that the current market-determined volatility of Bitcoin at-the-money options expiring on December 27 is approximately at 54%. In the best case scenario, this prediction suggests that BTC’s price could witness an upward shift of more than 22% to around $82,000 by the year’s end. Ardern also warned that there could also be a similar downward swing.

A Market Full of Uncertainties

Given the fluctuating market conditions, the probabilities in the options market can also shift quickly. This means that the possibility of Bitcoin attaining $100,000 by the year’s end could improve if there’s a leap in implied volatility and the prices hit an all-time high. Market volatility could also see a boost arising from the much-anticipated U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, which could significantly impact the digital assets industry regulations.

CEO of Two Prime, a SEC-registered digital assets advisory, Alexander Blume, via an email, has advised cryptocurrency investors to brace themselves for substantial price volatility post the presidential election, as the election results could significantly influence the digital assets industry.